Edward T. Rincon Archives - Page 4 of 7

Become a Research Participant register

Takata Recall Campaign: Consumer Safety Threatened by Corporate Greed and Government Missteps

If you are one of the unfortunate owners of a vehicle that has been recalled due to a defective Takata airbag, I feel your pain. Driving a vehicle with an airbag that could explode on impact and kill or injure you or your passengers is unnerving to say the least. But being forced to drive it without access to a replacement vehicle from the auto dealer where it was purchased clearly puts the nail in the coffin.

The U.S. community is no stranger to product recalls, especially those that pose an immediate danger to public health. Indeed, we are accustomed to seeing contaminated food products removed from store shelves, factories closed when listeria has contaminated our food supply, persons isolated when they have been diagnosed with a deadly virus like Ebola, and emergency teams deployed to communities impacted by natural disasters. Responses to such events have one thing in common: they never rely on just one method of communicating with the public about these dangers, and often include a mix of broadcast media, social media, public bulletins, city-wide sirens, community churches, and other approaches. Our traditional response has been effective in quickly isolating the danger to the public, thereby saving lives and reducing injuries.

For some curious reason, however, relatively little alarm and urgent action has been associated with the deaths and injuries that have resulted from the recognized failure of Takata airbags – 11 deaths and 180 injuries – a problem that was first reported by Honda about 8 years ago. [1] Unlike other national public hazards, millions of vehicle drivers are being forced to operate their vehicles with these defective airbags and endangering their lives and family members. Why? Presumably because there is a shortage of replacement parts. But there is more to this story than just a shortage of parts.

Especially troubling is the anemic airbag completion rate that automakers are showing in response to the national Takata recall campaign. According to a recent National Highway Traffic Administration (NHTSA) press release (12-9-16). [2] 46 million Takata airbags in 29 million U.S. vehicles have been recalled, but only 12.5 million of these airbags, or 27 percent, have been repaired. The ability of Takata to meet the 2019 completion deadline set by NHTSA looks really dim since an additional 64 to 69 million more inflators in 42 million U.S. vehicles are expected to be recalled over the next three years. Scott Upham, CEO of Valient Research, tracks airbag sales and recently stated in an interview that Takata is under tremendous financial strain from the recalls and likely to file bankruptcy unless help is provided by the Japanese government or automakers. [3]

The responsiveness of automakers to the national Takata recall has varied significantly and partially explains why the NTHSA declared recently that automakers were not doing enough to speed up the process. The following table displays the airbag repair completion rates by make of the vehicle as presented in the NHTSA web site.

Takata Airbag Completion Rates by Make of Vehicle, 2016

Make	Total Airbags Repaired	Completion Rate
Honda	8,289,301	50.31
FCA – Chrysler	1,469,233	33.77
Daimler Trucks North America	778	29.91
Toyota	1,478,852	29.52
Nissan	294,752	21.98
Ford	369,457	21.29
Subaru	185,470	19.60
Mitsubishi	19,719	17.30
Ferrari	441	15.58
BMW	246,301	13.23
Mazda	1,192,556	10.64
Daimler Vans USA LLC	1,822	2.33
Mercedes Benz	3,434	0.48
General Motors	671	0.22

Source: www.nhtsa.gov

NHTSA cautions that these airbag completion rates do not represent the real-time status of recall performance since there are inherent delays in the repair status and the time that the repair is reported to NHTSA. Also, the agency explains that it is difficult to compare completion rates because “some recalls include vehicles that have been under recall for many years, whereas others reflect recalls that have only just started or have only started in a discreet geographic area due to parts restrictions.” Nonetheless, it is safe to assume that these completion rates are a snapshot of the current challenge facing each automaker. Honda, for example, had the largest number of recalled airbags but has managed to complete repairs for 50.3 percent of these airbags. By contrast, automakers with large numbers of defective airbags had completion rates that were considerably lower: Chrysler (34%), Toyota (30%), and Mazda (11%). Most of the automakers had completion rates under 30 percent. Regardless of whether these completion rates were influenced by the lack of replacement parts from Takata or not, it is discomforting to hear from NHTSA that automakers may not be making their best efforts to reduce the number of potential deaths and injuries resulting from the defective Takata airbags. [4]

What explains the anemic recall completion rate to a public hazard that has already resulted in 11 deaths and 180 injuries? In my view, shred responsibility falls on the shoulders of four key participants of the recall campaign: NHTSA, the automotive industry, the vehicle owners, and Takata.

The NHTSA: NHTSA has struggled to engage automakers and vehicle owners through its various directives and policy initiatives. The agency’s standard news coverage about the Takata recall simply “urges” vehicle drivers to check their vehicle identification number on www.safecare.gov and to contact automotive dealers to replace the defective airbags. NHTSA has ordered 19 automakers to recall nearly 42 million cars, making it the largest recall in U.S. automotive history.[5] The agency required automakers to send two notices to vehicle owners, mostly by mail,[6] which is not likely to reach about 20 percent of consumers who move on a monthly basis and may not provide a forwarding address. The dismal airbag repair completion rates prompted NHTSA to voice its concern to automakers that they were not doing enough to contact vehicle owners, and “encouraged” them to try other tactics like mass advertising or social media – which are not legally required. [7] NTHSA’s directives to the automotive industry were hampered by two other realities: (a) it cannot legally force automakers and dealers to provide rental cars to customers who sometimes have to wait years for a replacement airbag, and (b) auto dealers selling used cars were not legally required to disclose to customers if a defective Takata airbag was present in the vehicle.[8] Curiously, it was not until June 1, 2016 that NHTSA issued a federal directive that required rental car agencies to fix any and all open safety defects before renting out vehicles to customers.[9] More recently, the NHTSA ordered automakers to submit a “recall engagement plan” within 90 days to substantially improve their outreach to vehicle owners. NHTSA has also initiated bus tours in high-priority states to improve awareness of the recall campaign among vehicle owners.[10]

Clearly, NHTSA is probably doing the best that it can within its legal constraints to expedite the Takata recall process, but the agency desperately needs more legislative support to force the automotive industry and vehicle drivers to comply with the recall objectives. To date, NHTSA has received relatively little support from lawmakers to accelerate compliance with the Takata recall campaign. Senator Bill Nelson, a Florida Democrat whose state has experienced several of the deaths and injuries resulting from the failed Takata inflators, shared his frustration with the slow pace of the recalls:

“The top priority must be doing whatever is necessary to get these potentially deadly airbags out of people’s cars as quickly as possible. If we wait another three or four years for these to get replaced, more people are likely to die.” [11]

Lastly, NHTSA’s method for establishing priority vehicles for airbag repair is limited in two important ways. Focusing repairs on vehicles located in hot and high humidity areas, for example, overlooks the many vehicles that will occasionally travel from less warm or low humid areas to hotter or more humid places like Texas. Secondly, focusing attention on older vehicles makes sense, but what plans are in place to communicate with the many vehicle owners who are more likely to buy used or older vehicles – such as the lower income, the elderly, immigrants, or other vulnerable groups?

The Automotive Industry: With the possible exception of Honda, some automakers have allowed corporate greed to shape their response to the millions of potential Takata recall victims who were, ironically, responsible for their success. In some respects, this comes as no surprise since automakers have not always shown good faith towards its customers and have required federal intervention to protect consumers from deaths and injuries. Four key examples come to mind:

Toyota: As recently as 2014, Toyota was fined $1.2 billion by the U.S. Attorney General for their behavior in hiding safety defects from the public, calling it “shameful” and a “blatant disregard” for the law. A $1.2 billion criminal penalty, the largest for a car manufacturer in the U.S., was imposed by the Attorney General.[12]

Volkswagen: Volkswagen recently reached settlements emerging out of lawsuits from car owners and the U.S. Department of Justice after the Environmental Protection Agency said Volkswagen had fitted many of its cars with software to fool emissions tests. One $1 billion settlement will give at least some owners of the remaining 80,000 diesel vehicles caught in the company’s emissions cheating scandal the option of a buyback and provide all of them with compensation on top of any repurchase or repairs. The settlement with U.S. regulators and attorneys for owners of the 3-liter diesel cars will include a choice of a buyback for 20,000 vehicles. The company has reached a separate $1.2 billion deal with its U.S. dealers and is still facing potentially billions more in fines and penalties and possible criminal charges.[13]

General Motors: GM has paid roughly $2 billion in criminal and civil penalties and settlements stemming from a faulty ignition switch linked to 124 deaths and 275 injuries. The switch can slip out of place, causing engines to stall and cutting power to the brake, steering and air bag systems. The defect prompted the recall of 2.6 million vehicles in 2014. The company had previously acknowledged that some of its employees knew about the switch defect for years before a recall was initiated.[14]

CarMax: CarMax Inc. and two other major used auto retailers have agreed to settle Federal Trade Commission charges that they touted how rigorously they inspect their used cars, yet failed to adequately disclose that some of the cars were subject to unrepaired safety recalls. The proposed consent orders will prohibit them from making unqualified inspection or safety-related claims about their used vehicles if any are subject to open, or unrepaired, safety recalls.[15]

Rental Car Companies: Starting June 1, 2016, rental car agencies must fix any and all open safety defects before renting out vehicles to customers, giving the safety agency power to investigate and punish violators for the first time. It seems incredible that rental car companies had no second thoughts about placing their customers in danger until they were forced to comply by a government order.[16]

Without aggressive government intervention, one can only imagine how many deaths and injuries could have resulted from the uncontrolled agreed of selected members of the automotive industry. This corporate greed and rather callous indifference to consumer safety has apparently re-surfaced in the Takata recall campaign as automakers appear content with doing the minimum required by NHTSA to communicate and support their customers during this crisis. For example, in recent interviews (4-15-16) with representatives of different automakers, a news reporter with the San Francisco Chronicle discovered the following car rental or loaner practices: [17]

Most automakers do not offer a loaner vehicle or free rental car to vehicle owners who are required to wait for a replacement airbag – which could take several years.

Honda has the most generous car rental policy that it communicates to customers via its web site. Since 2014, Honda has provided 232,000 loaner and rental cars to its customers – no doubt a key factor that has helped Honda achieve an airbag repair completion rate of 50 percent.

Mazda also communicates via its web site that customers can request a loader if they have received a recall notice, a program that has resulted in 1,234 free car rentals.

By contrast, Toyota, Nissan and BMW do not post information about car rentals on their web sites, but assume a more passive approach by providing a loaner car only if asked by the vehicle owner.

Ford and Volkswagen do not offer vehicle owners any alternative transportation.

The extent of this corporate greed is further illustrated in a recent Senate report released in June 2016 by Sen. Mark Nelson (D-Fla.) that tells us even more shocking news: new cars are still being built with flawed Takata airbags, which will continue until 2018 to “phase out supplying the defective inflators to fulfill existing contracts.”[18] Worse yet, the newer versions of the airbags that are being installed today are expected to be recalled as well at a later date. As Sen. Mark Nelson explains it: “What’s troubling here is that consumers are buying new cars not realizing they’re going to be recalled….these cars shouldn’t be sold until they’re fixed.” Karl Brauer, a senior analyst with Kelley Blue Book added: “This may be the first time in history where multiple automakers are selling brand new cars with a known, and potentially deadly defect….the scope of this recall continues to expand, and the number of vehicles impacted by it has already reached a level that will take years to resolve.” Automakers, with the permission of the federal government, have apparently decided to place their sales and profits above the safety of their customers.

In addition, the refusal of automakers to use mass advertising to alert vehicle owners about the Takata recall campaign contradicts their standard industry practices. Mass advertising – a comprehensive strategy that incorporates television, radio, print, the Internet and social media — is commonly used by automakers to market their vehicles to consumers, comprising millions of dollars in advertising expenditures each year. Although automakers may believe that they are saving advertising dollars by avoiding the use of mass advertising to alert vehicle owners about the recalled Takata airbags, perhaps they may re-consider their decision once the lawyers begin using mass advertising to represent the many disgruntled or injured consumers resulting from the recall. Really, it would not be that difficult to create a mass advertising campaign where automakers could pool their resources to more quickly alert vehicle owners about the defective Takata airbags. The U.S. Census Bureau, for example, has demonstrated the power of mass advertising in achieving a high response rate to the decennial census by incorporating a broad multilingual campaign that engaged different segments of the U.S. population. Such a campaign would be highly beneficial in accelerating compliance with the Takata recall campaign. The mass advertising campaign should also alert new vehicle buyers if their new vehicles will include a Takata airbag, whether it is currently defective or will become defective in the near future. Consumers have a right to know this information so that they can opt to purchase a different vehicle or perhaps delay their purchase altogether.

The Vehicle Owner: Are vehicle owners just ignoring the alerts to replace defective Takata airbags? Do they understand these notices? Or are they just indifferent to the recall campaign? Of course, one cannot answer these questions conclusively without hard evidence, especially given that no mass advertising has been implemented yet and auto dealers have been given wide latitude by the NHTSA to comply with the recall campaign. However, assuming that vehicle owners remain non-complaint even though (a) they are aware of the Takata recall campaign, (b) are offered a loaner or rental car while waiting for a replacement airbag, and (c) replacement airbags are available, it seems that the federal government should take charge and force consumer compliance as it has done in the past with the use of safety belts and automobile safety inspections. In addition, some states are suspending driving privileges to ensure compliance with government programs like child support. Consumer compliance, however, may not be the major impediment to the Takata recall program in the context of the weak support and corporate greed demonstrated by the automotive industry, as well as federal notices of encouragement that lack the force of law.

One mysterious question that emerges about consumer reaction surrounding the Takata recall campaign is: Where is the public outrage? Indeed, where are the advocacy groups, such as Mothers Against Drunk Driving (MADD), that have been effective in mobilizing consumers, creating broad media coverage, and shaping legislative changes on important social or health issues? Is the public just uninformed about the deadly consequences of defective Takata airbags, or has the public been sedated by the various philanthropic activities of automakers? Corporate giants have long recognized the importance of community investment to insulate their reputations from the wrath of communities that have been impacted by their defective products or controversial policies. Perhaps some of the corporate donations to communities – such as soccer stadiums or scholarships programs – should be shifted to support a broader mass advertising campaign that alerts vehicle owners about the recall campaign and availability of car rental programs.

While NHTSA and automakers continue to waltz around the programs and policies that could substantially improve compliance with the Takata recall campaign, consumers will increasingly lose their patience and becoming increasingly fearful of being the next victim of the deadly Takata airbags. Rather than wait for replacement airbags to arrive, vehicle owners may be considering other options, such as:

Seeking a legal remedy if automakers refuse to provide a replacement vehicle

Stopping car payments until defective airbags are repaired or replaced

Starting a collective boycott against non-responsive automakers to obtain a replacement vehicle.

Lobby lawmakers to push for legislation to immediately stop automakers from installing defective Takata airbags in new and used vehicles, whether they are currently defective or will become defective in the near future.

Require automakers, dealers and rental companies to disclose to all buyers or rental customers whether a vehicle contains a Takata airbag that is currently defective or will become defective in the near future.

While NHTSA encourages vehicle owners to continue driving vehicles while they are waiting for replacement airbags, one attorney – Todd Walburg with Lieff Cabraser Heiman & Bernstein – has a different point of view. Mr. Walburg has sued many car companies on behalf of consumers and advises the owners of recalled vehicles “to stop driving the car immediately. Take it to a dealership and demand a rental car, because the safety of the owner and their families is at risk. If they don’t provide a rental car, look into legal options.” [19]

Takata: What do you tell the company that started the forest fire? At the very minimum, do not start more fires. Ironically, Takata continues to manufacture airbags with the same defective inflator design, and U.S. automakers will continue to install these airbags until the year 2018 to allow Takata to fulfill its current contractual agreements. Concern for the deaths and injuries that may occur with this arrangement has taken a backseat to the need to fulfill business contracts with the approval of our federal government. For unknown reasons, Takata became the favored supplier for automakers and has enjoyed a 30 percent market share of all airbag sales.[20] While Takata and automakers were enjoying their successful relationship, no one seemed too concerned that the honeymoon could be threatened by a massive recall of Takata airbags. Honda was the first to issue a recall of Takata inflators in 2008, while it took another five years (2013) for Takata to file a defect report about manufacturing problems with their airbags. A year later (2014), NHTSA asked several automakers to recall vehicles with Takata airbags in hot and humid regions because of airbag ruptures occurring in Florida and Puerto Rico.[21]

These milestones may seem reasonable given the complexities associated with the largest recall campaign in U.S. history. However, a recent blogpost on the web site of Valient Market Research [22] revealed key information suggesting that Takata delays may have had an ulterior motive. As Daniel Gremke, the blogpost writer tells us:

Honda and Nissan, the two flagship customers of Takata, refused to financially bailout their longtime safety systems partner;

Takata repeatedly failed to accept legal and financial responsibility for the deaths and injuries resulting from ruptured Takata inflators, and instead blamed their car maker customers for failing to properly test the airbag inflators before production approval throughout the 2000-2012 time period;

Takata repeatedly manipulated inflator test data prior to submitting it to its OEM customers throughout the mid-2000’s. Despite concerns shared in internal memos by American Takata engineering executives about the Japanese practice of data falsification and manipulation, Takata continued this practice until its discovery several years ago.

After a highly respected German technical research firm – Fraunhofer Institute – confirmed the problem with Takata’s chosen propellant for the airbag, Takata publicly admitted that it would change the airbag’s propellant formula after 2018.

Given its obvious efforts to falsify the test data, it is possible that Takata’s foreign ownership shielded them from criminal prosecution by the U.S. Attorney General as occurred when Toyota hid its safety defects in 2014. Interestingly, the delays associated with Takata’s refusal to accept responsibility for the deaths and injuries that its airbags have caused, coupled with the federal government’s reluctance to act more decisively in stopping the continued use of these airbags, have both given Takata ample time to populate increasingly larger numbers of U.S. vehicles with its defective airbags, thereby ensuring dependency on Takata well into the future. It seems incredible that the NHTSA would allow the continued installation of defective Takata airbags, especially when recognizing the current dismal airbag repair compliance rates by automakers; that is, because large numbers of vehicle owners are not getting their defective airbags replaced, what this business arrangement does is increase the number of time-sensitive land mines that will explode sometime in the future. In addition, many of these older vehicles will escape detection and repair since vehicle sales by individual owners are not being monitored very carefully. We should all worry about the population of used vehicles, since the average age of vehicles on America’s roads is 11.4 years and expected to grow rapidly as new cars become less affordable.[23]

Thus, it appears that no one in the automotive has been in a hurry to protect consumers from the defective Takata airbags. On the contrary, current NHTSA policies and automaker practices appear to favor the continued sales of vehicles with known defective Takata airbags over the short and long-term safety of consumers. In the meantime, the marketing of vehicles continues as usual while consumers are expected to accept the premise that they should blame a parts shortage for the deaths, injuries, and absence of rental cars that they are likely to experience. Are U.S. consumers so naïve, or will they take decisive action to change the course of the Takata recall campaign?

Suggestions to Facilitate the Takata Recall Campaign

As one of the largest recalls in U.S. history, it is reasonable to expect that the Takata recall campaign will take many years to achieve. However, the length of time that it takes to achieve 100 percent compliance will require all participants to make aggressive efforts to change their behavior, programs and policies. The following table summarizes the changes that I believe are needed to accelerate the Takata recall campaign.

PARTICIPANT	RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
Takata	· Get the financial support needed from Japanese banks to expand capacity to repair all defective air bags · Stop using the defective propellant in any airbags, new and replacements · Allow third-party experts to monitor all future testing of airbag products to avoid falsification of test data
Automakers and dealers	· Stop using Takata airbags with defective propellant formula · Disclose the use of Takata airbags to all vehicle buyers so they have the option to refuse the purchase of that vehicle · Offer rental cars to all vehicle owners waiting for airbag repairs – rentals that do not have any safety defects · Create a mass advertising campaign in multiple languages by pooling resources with other automakers to deliver a comprehensive message about the recall campaign
NTHSA	· Stop Takata immediately from installing any airbags that include the defective propellant · Require automakers to provide rental cars to vehicle owners waiting for replacement parts, and publicize this benefit widely · Require new/used auto dealers to disclose the presence of Takata airbags to all consumers, regardless of whether the airbags are currently defective or not · Require vehicle inspections to include a check on compliance with the Takata recall campaign
Vehicle owners	· Demand replacement vehicles and consider legal remedies if request is denied · Stop buying vehicles that include a Takata airbag with the defective propellant · Lobby lawmakers to create legislation with penalties to force Takata, automakers and vehicle owners to comply with the Takata recall campaign · Launch a high-visibility protest to expose non-responsive automakers

Inquiries or comments regarding this paper should be sent to Dr. Edward T. Rincon at edward@rinconassoc.com. To learn more about Rincón & Associates LLC, please visit our web site at https://www.rinconassoc.com.

ENDNOTES

—————————————–

[1]National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. Fact Sheet: Takata Recall History and Key Terms. https://www.nhtsa.gov/sites/nhtsa.dot.gov/files/documents/120916-fact_sheet-takata_recall_history_and_key_terms-tagged.pdf

[2]U.S. Department of Transportation. “U.S. DOT accelerates replacements of Takata air bag inflators.” Press release of December 9, 2016. https://www.nhtsa.gov/press-releases/us-dot-accelerates-replacements-takata-air-bag-inflators

[3]Davis, Todd. “Who’s NOT on the list? Up to 40M more cars added to Takata air bag inflator recall.” Dallas Morning News, May 4, 2016. http://www.dallasnews.com/business/autos/2016/05/04/who-s-not-on-the-list-up-to-40m-more-cars-added-to-takata-air-bag-inflator-recall

[4]Wire Services. “Takata air bag recall will end up affecting over 42 million vehicles.” Dallas Morning News, December 19, 2016. http://www.dallasnews.com/business/autos/2016/12/09/takata-air-bag-recall-will-end-affecting-42-million-vehicles

[5]Davis, Todd. “Who’s NOT on the list? Up to 40M more cars added to Takata air bag inflator recall.”

[6]Pender, Kathleen. “Takata recall: Some drivers get free rental cars, for months.” San Francisco Chronicle, April 15, 2016. www.sfchronicle.com/business/networth/article/Takata-recall-Some-drivers-get-free-rental-cars-7252027.php.

[7] Wire Services. “Takata air bag recall will end up affecting over 42 million vehicles.”

[8]Pender, Kathleen. “Takata recall: Some drivers get free rental cars, for months.”

[9]National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. “Effective Today: New Federal law for recalled rental cars protects consumers from vehicle safety defects.” Press release dated June 1, 2016. https://www.nhtsa.gov/press-releases/effective-today-new-federal-law-recalled-rental-cars-protects-consumers-vehicle

[10] Wire Services. “Takata air bag recall will end up affecting over 42 million vehicles.”

[11]Davis, Todd. “Who’s NOT on the list? Up to 40M more cars added to Takata air bag inflator recall.”

[12]Vlasic, Bill and Apuzzo, Matt. “Toyota Is Fined $1.2 Billion for Concealing Safety Defects.” New York Times, March 19, 2014. https://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/20/business/toyota-reaches-1-2-billion-settlement-in-criminal-inquiry.html?_r=0

[13]Thanawala, Sudhin, Associated Press. “Volkswagen’s $1 billion deal on diesel cars gives buyback option for owners.” Dallas Morning News, December 20, 2016. http://www.dallasnews.com/business/autos/2016/12/20/volkswagens-1-billion-deal-diesel-cars-gives-buyback-option-owners

[14]Reuters. “General Motors Settles Ignition-Switch Cases GM case.” September 6, 2016. http://fortune.com/2016/09/05/general-motors-settles-ignition-switch-cases/

[15]Dorman, Frank. “CarMax and two other dealers settle FTC charges that they touted inspections while failing to disclose some of the cars were subject to unrepaired safety recalls.” Federal Trade Commission press release dated December 16, 2016. https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/press-releases/2016/12/carmax-two-other-dealers-settle-ftc-charges-they-touted

[16]National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. “Effective Today: New Federal law for recalled rental cars protects consumers from vehicle safety defects.”

[17]Pender, Kathleen. “Takata recall: Some drivers get free rental cars, for months.”

[18]Isodore, Chris. “New cars being built with flawed Takata airbags.” June 1, 2016. http://money.cnn.com/2016/06/01/news/companies/takata-airbag-recall-new-cars/

[19]Pender, “Takata recall: Some drivers get free rental cars, for months.”

[20]O’Donnell, Paul. “Are you affected? What you should know about the record-setting Takata air bag recall.” Dallas Morning News, May 6, 2016. http://www.dallasnews.com/business/business/2016/05/06/what-you-need-to-know-about-the-takata-air-bag-recall-the-largest-in-automotive-history

[21]National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. Fact Sheet: Takata Recall History and Key Terms.

[22]Gremke, Daniel. “Takata’s Future: Implosion, Bail Out or Metamorphosis.” January 7, 2016. http://valientmarketresearch.com/uncategorized/takatas-future-implosion-bail-out-or-metamorphosis/

[23] Valdes-Dapena. “Average U.S. car is 11.4 years old, a record high.” http://money.cnn.com/2013/08/06/autos/age-of-cars/

Texas Rangers Stadium: Questionable Polling Practices in a High-Stakes Competition

You have got to be kidding. On November 8, City of Arlington residents are expected to vote on a divisive ballot measure to finance the proposed $1 billion Texas Rangers Stadium. Meanwhile, campaign stakeholders have released a series of poorly designed, automated, low-cost polls to measure the public opinion on this important issue. What’s wrong with this picture?

With such high stakes consequences, one would assume that poll sponsors would want to support their campaign advocacy with a high-quality poll conducted by a polling company with a recognized track record. Poll sponsors may try to stack the deck to support their campaign objectives, but a reputable pollster with a good track record would not knowingly bias a study. Not everyone that conducts opinion polls, however, are reputable pollsters. Indeed, the “shadow” polling industry includes many telemarketing firms, call centers and political operatives that have little or no training in survey practices or ethical conduct, and usually not active in professional polling organizations.

Each of the sponsored polls have reported different results, used varying methodologies, and were conducted by polling firms with varying reputations. Only one of these polls –conducted by DHC Data — has been subjected to critical review by survey experts in local news stories and considered to be of questionable quality. Interestingly, the polls sponsored by the Say Yes campaign and WFAA/Fort Worth Star-Telegram have not been critically analyzed by survey experts in local news reports. Because the results of these polls are likely to influence the voting behavior of Arlington city residents, I believe that each of these polls require some scrutiny as well. The reputation of a pollster is clearly important, but not as important as their polling methodology in a particular study.

I reviewed only one online report for the poll sponsored by WFAA and the Fort. Worth Star-Telegram, while relying on published news reports regarding the methodology of the other three polls. I discovered shortcomings in all polls, and would like to share my thoughts on their implications for polling accuracy and voting outcomes. My only objective here is to educate the public about good and bad polling practices — topics that I usually address in classes that I teach on survey research methods, mass communications research, and statistics. In addition, the information discussed should provide some help in deciding which poll deserves more of the public’s confidence.

1. Sample Selection: Each of the polls reported that their target audience included likely voters in the City of Arlington. However, only one of the pollsters — Public Opinion Strategies — sampled landline and cell phone households since they used live interviewers to manually dial the numbers, as required by the FCC, which is likely to capture a more representative sample of voters. DHC Data (for Save Our Stadium), however, relied exclusively on landline phones while Survey USA (for WFAA/Star-Telegram) relied primarily (76%) on landline phones and less on mobile phones. Good survey practice suggests that pollsters should rely less on landline telephones because their penetration has declined significantly in recent years and are more likely to capture older residents. A recent study by the Pew Research Centers explains the wisdom of placing more reliance on cellphone households in telephone-based surveys:

“Samples of adults reached via cellphone are much more demographically representative of the U.S. than samples of adults reached via landline. Consequently, replacing landline interviews with cellphone interviews reduces the degree to which survey data need to be weighted to be representative of U.S. adults. This in turn improves the precision of estimates by reducing the margin of sampling error. Perhaps not surprisingly, one major survey was recently redesigned to feature 100% cellphone interviewing.” (The Twilight of Landline Interviewing,” Pew Research Center, August 1, 2016)

Thus, studies that rely primarily on landline telephone households may be “stacking the deck” by placing more weight on the opinions of older residents than the opinions of residents that depend more on cell phones, such as younger and ethnic minority residents.

2. Exclusion of Demographics: Without demographic information about the poll respondents, it is difficult to know how well the poll respondents represented the voting community. There is no good reason to hide this information other than to avoid scrutiny by other experts. Each of the studies tell us that their target audiences were likely voters in the City of Arlington, but only one of the polls (WFAA/Star-Telegram) provided demographic information for the respondents that could influence the survey outcomes – such as race, gender, and age. For pollsters that do not disclose demographic information, we are left to wonder if these polls over- or under-represented particular segments of the community which could mispresent the polling results. None of the pollsters reported whether their polling results were weighted or adjusted to reflect the demographics of the voting community in the city of Arlington.

3. Questionnaire Content: Survey experts interviewed in news stories had mixed opinions about the one poll reviewed (Save Our Stadium), pointing to such problems as leading questions or long questions that would test the memory of any person. Campaign representatives on both sides have pointed to incomplete or misleading descriptions of the ballot measure as well.

4. Data Collection Approach: With the exception of Public Opinion Strategies (POS), the two other polling firms (DHC Data and Survey USA) opted to use the cheapest and least credible data collection approaches to collect opinions on this divisive issue: pre-recorded, automated telephone calls instead of live telephone interviews. Automatic telephone calls have little credibility in the polling industry because they remove human contact, and do not provide any opportunity for clarification when respondents are confused. Automated telephone calls are often rejected by residents because they are associated with telemarketing firms that often annoy the public. Polling firms employ automated calls when they have limited time available, have a limited budget to fund live telephone interviews, or have limited resources to use live interviewers. Because FCC regulations prohibit automated calls to cell phone users unless they are manually dialed, polls using automated methods exclude nearly half of community residents who have only wireless devices but no landline telephones – a practice that systemically excludes younger residents and ethnic minority groups.

5. Language offered: Based solely on news reports about these polls, it appears that none of the pollsters offered a language other than English to collect their data. Why is this important? Hispanics comprise 29 percent of Arlington city residents, while 36 percent of Hispanics are foreign-born and primarily Spanish-speaking. Our past experience shows that 50 to 63 percent of Hispanics will prefer a Spanish-language interview because they find it easier to express their opinions. Unless their presence in the voting community is minimal, it makes little sense to exclude this strong base of baseball fans by offering only one language. Indeed, it is likely that the estimate of support for the new stadium could be under-estimated by this exclusion.

6. Pollster’s Reputation: The reputation of the polling companies was also discussed in news reports. In my opinion, Public Opinion Strategies utilized the most credible polling methodology since all interviews were conducted by telephone with live interviewers, their two polls included landline and cell phone households, and the company has a long history of public opinion polling. DHC Data, however, was characterized in news reports as having a low visibility, no web site, and questionable experience as a pollster. Its owner, however, claims to have conducted several polling studies in past years. Survey USA – who conducted the WFAA/Ft. Worth Star Telegram poll, was also described as having a solid polling history. Interestingly, survey experts only scrutinized the poll conducted by DHC Data, while the polls conducted by the other two polling firms received praise for their track records but little criticism of the polling techniques used in the Texas Rangers campaign. It is a risky practice to avoid scrutiny of a pollster’s practices because they have a great reputation.

In summary, the most recent polling results are summarized below:

· Save Our Stadium poll by DHC Data: 38% support, 46% oppose, 16% undecided

· Say Yes polls by Public Opinion Strategies:

o Sept. 23-25: 54% support, 40% oppose, 6% undecided

o Oct. 14-15: 56% support, 37% oppose, 7% undecided

· WFAA/Ft. Worth Star Telegram poll by SurveyUSA: 42% support, 42 opposed, 16% undecided

Ultimately, the election scheduled for Nov. 8 will be the final word on which pollster provided the best picture of how Arlington residents feel about the Texas Rangers Stadium issue. Based on the information evaluated thus far, I believe that the polling results by Public Opinion Strategies for the Vote Yes campaign – 54-56 percent supporting the stadium referendum – presents the most accurate picture of the actual voting outcome. Why? Primarily because they used human beings to conduct the interviews and included both landline and cell phone residents in their study. The poll was not without its own shortcomings since it did not describe the respondents’ demographic attributes, and may have excluded Spanish-speaking and younger voters by over-relying on landline telephone households. Nonetheless, I believe that their polling practices and results are more deserving of the public’s confidence in comparison to the other polls.

Thus, poll sponsors that invest minimally in opinion polls and approve of practices that are known to bias polling results do a disservice to the voting community. Since the results of these polls are likely to positively or negatively influence the actual voting outcomes, it is imperative that pollsters utilize recognized best practices in polling and also disclose demographic information about the respondents in their polls that can be used to evaluate potential sources of bias stemming from their sampling or data collection methods.

Journalistic Blind Spots

It is one of the least understood paradoxes of contemporary times: As our nation is experiencing the most dramatic demographic transformation in history, Americans are becoming less familiar with members of their diverse communities. Part of the explanation for this trend, sociologists tell us, is that our nation’s schools, churches, residential communities and social groups are becoming more racially segregated. This may not come as a surprise since people generally spend more time with others that share something in common, including race or ethnicity, economic standing, religious or political beliefs, or general lifestyles. What is perhaps less understood, however, is the extent to which our nation’s journalists and media contribute to this increasing segregation of our communities. For various reasons, I believe that the role of media segregation deserves our collective attention.

Journalistic blind spots are common practices by media professionals that portray communities of color through a distorted lens – as unfavorable, less visible or perhaps insignificant – practices that reinforce stereotypes and continued segregation amidst continued growth and diversity. Following are a few observations from my past years in evaluating mass media that illustrate my concerns. While these observations are based primarily on media trends in Texas and the Dallas/Fort Worth metropolitan area, it is likely that geographic areas throughout the U.S. have had similar experiences.

· Anointing of Ethnic Leaders: Have you ever wondered why journalists often use the terms “Black leader” or “Latino leader” in news stories, but are careful to avoid the use of the term “white leader”? Whether deserved or not, the practice tends to elevate the importance of the opinions expressed by these “leaders,” which may or may not represent their communities. Journalists are hard-pressed to explain this practice.

· Biased Political Coverage: News sources are not always objective in their coverage of political candidates. In a recent mayoral election, for example, a Latino candidate’s electability was an ongoing topic of local news stories, describing the candidate as having “no chance of winning” against the incumbent white candidate. The curious placement of a story about the Latino candidate next to the obituary section of the newspaper reinforced the news bias even further. And in yet another political story discussing Latino support for Donald Trump in Texas, the reporter chose to discuss the only poll that showed the highest support for candidate Trump, while acknowledging the substandard quality of this poll’s methodology and overlooking more credible polls that placed Latino support for Trump at a much lower level. Whether intentional or not, these practices inject unnecessary bias in news stories that describe the Latino political campaigns and voter sentiments.

· The Usual Suspects: The sentiments of people of color, especially local ones, are often invisible in news stories or op-ed sections. It is not for a lack of opinions or an absence of experts since there are many people of color that are able to articulate their points of view on a variety of topics. Instead, journalists often take the path of least resistance and utilize the “usual suspects” – that is, the same academics, business or civic members – which discourages a diversity of ideas. To further influence public sentiment on a controversial issue, the editorial staff of news organizations will offer their own point of view. For example, recent local news coverage about the possible loss of ABA accreditation for the UNT Dallas School of Law has been largely negative, while ignoring local community sentiments that are supportive of the law school. Communities of color, in particular, are in dire need of a more affordable legal education and more Black and Latino attorneys to serve their needs. The law school needs more, not less, advocacy on this issue. The practice of selecting the “usual suspects” may be convenient but does not contribute to a diversity of ideas – something that can be remedied by expanding the pool of the usual suspects.

· Predictable News Coverage: Past studies of mass media content coverage show that the majority of news coverage about Latinos has been concentrated in just four areas: crime, immigration, poverty, and under-achievement. Similarly, news coverage of African Americans is often saturated with stories about racial profiling and police relations, criminal investigations of high profile politicians and celebrities, and school-related problems. With this constant diet of negative news stories about Blacks and Latinos, is it any wonder that residential communities are becoming more racially segregated? These negative portrayals have impacted the decisions by supermarket chains and other businesses to serve these communities, which are perceived as having little economic potential – leading the Dallas City Council to offer a $1 million incentive to encourage business development in these communities. Such negative news stories, however, often tell an incomplete story about communities of color.

· The Curious Absence of Commerce: It is a rare day indeed that journalists will cover a topic that relates to the business or economic vitality of communities of color – almost as if it does not exit. This should not be so difficult in a metro area where minority-owned businesses contribute significantly to the area’s economy. In the most recent Survey of Business Owners, the Census Bureau tells us that in the Dallas/Ft. Worth metro area, there were 80,994 Black, 117,592 Hispanic and 52,456 Asian business owners with 2012 sales of $37 billion. In addition, the aggregate household income (or crude measure of buying power) for Black, Latino and Asian consumers totals to $63.3 billion – or 31 percent of the metro’s total buying power of $204 billion. Despite the large presence of minority-owned businesses and surveys that document the consumer behavior and buying power of multicultural consumers, business journalists seem to find it more rewarding to cover ethnic celebrations, food, and occasional problems at ethnic chambers of commerce. Clearly, there is significant room for improvement in the business section of news media.

· Segregated media: The failure of mainstream media to address the information needs of diverse communities has fueled the growth of ethnic media, which often provides more relevant content to its audiences. However, this trend has further segregated our communities as mainstream journalists and media become increasingly comfortable with the notion that ethnic media are best suited to handle news about ethnic communities. Segregated media, unfortunately, further decreases the likelihood that community residents will become familiar with the lifestyles and achievements of other members of their communities, especially in areas like economics, civic and political participation, educational attainment, technology, scientific innovations, and religion.

Of course, the media industry is only one of many factors that contribute to the increasing segregation of our communities. Nonetheless, journalists and media executives need to be held accountable for the role that their media products play in creating and reinforcing the negative stereotypes and unbalanced portrayals of communities of color. Hiring more Black and Latino journalists, while important, is not sufficient as long as the final word on news content remains in the hands of media executives who are indifferent to these blind spots. We will know when we have achieved some measure of success when mainstream media, in particular, begins to include more balanced news content about communities of color, expands the diversity of views by local opinion writers or experts, and utilizes more credible opinion polls of our communities. By eliminating these blind spots, media executives will likely expand the diversity of ideas in news reports, include more balanced portrayals of communities of color, and perhaps become more relevant to their diverse news audiences.

UNT Dallas School of Law: A Work in Progress

It was disturbing to learn that the UNT Dallas School of Law is in danger of not receiving accreditation from the American Bar Association. This is not just bad news for the school, but also for the many students who have studied there expecting to finish their legal education from an accredited law school. The ABA committee cited several reasons for their decision

Too many students are being admitted that are struggling in school and being placed in academic probation, being dismissed or simply dropping out
No study has been conducted to assess the validity of the holistic admissions process used by the school, which considers a range of factors like LSAT scores, undergraduate GPA and courses taken, work experience, and various other life experiences.
Financial projections based on the potential demand for educating part-time students were not supported by any marketing study to assess demand for part-time education.

The picture that emerges is that UNT was taking risks in their admissions decisions and not conducting the needed research to evaluate the effectiveness of their holistic admissions model. On the positive side, the ABA committee was impressed with the school’s quality of teaching, student engagement, its library and technology resources, and the substantial opportunities for students to participate in pro-bono legal services.

There are many other reasons, however, to suggest that the law school is worthy of more praise and recognition for its bold initiative to provide an affordable legal education for under-represented groups. First and foremost, we should not overlook the fact that UNT Dallas College of Law is the only public law school in North Texas, and its tuition of $15,133 is the lowest of any law school in Texas. In today’s job market, many law school graduates are finding it difficult to obtain a job that allows them to pay the student loans that they acquired to finance their legal education. An affordable legal education makes a lot of sense these days, and the UNT Dallas College of Law is among the few law schools that appear committed to addressing this barrier to a legal education for under-represented groups.

Secondly, Texas requires that only graduates of accredited law schools can take the bar exam. On the face of it, this makes sense although various states do not have this requirement and give this responsibility to the state’s bar association — including California, Georgia, Alabama, Connecticut, Massachusetts, West Virginia and Tennessee. Passing the bar exam from a non-ABA accredited law school may not be the ideal career decision, but may be a viable choice for the many students that are locked out of ABA-accredited law schools due to sky-rocketing tuition fees and rigid entrance requirements. It would seem that passing the bar exam should be the ultimate rite of passage for entering the legal profession, but it is not. UNT Dallas College of Law aspires to become an ABA-accredited law school so that its graduates will be able to take the bar exam; however, this may not happen under current Texas law. The school has apparently sacrificed its ability to become ABA accredited by deliberately accepting students with lower LSAT scores and undergraduate GPAs, and providing them a chance to become an attorney. Should the school be punished for this or rewarded?

As part of the group of psychologists that specialize in the design and evaluation of educational measurement tests, I have often written about the shortcomings of college admissions tests like the SAT or LSAT, as well as state competency tests, in determining the educational choices for racial-ethnic groups. Such tests are but one measure of an individual’s likely academic performance, but often fall short in their ability to predict the academic performance of African Americans, Latinos and women. More importantly, the LSAT tells us little about an individual’s success as a lawyer.

Thirdly, there is little justification in my opinion for maintaining a legal education system where the majority of its graduates are white. Using data from the most recent demographic report by the American Bar Association, the chart on the left shows that 84 percent of attorneys in Dallas County are white, although they represent just 27 percent of the County’s population. By contrast, 43 percent of Dallas County’s population is Latino, while only 4.9 percent of all attorneys are Latino. Similarly, African Americans represent 22.3 percent of the Dallas County population, while they represent just 5.3 percent of Dallas County attorneys

In more practical terms, these disparities mean that:

There is one white attorney for every 52 whites in Dallas County
There is one African American attorney for every 634 African Americans in Dallas County
There is one Latino attorney for every 1,441 Latino residents in Dallas County, and
There is one other race-ethnic attorney for every 235 other race-ethnic residents in Dallas County.

Of course, we should not assume that white attorneys only serve whites, that African American attorneys only serve African Americans, or that Latino attorneys only serve Latinos – but that is often the case in the legal profession. What is truly surprising is that too many law schools have become complacent with these disparities and appear unwilling to change their models of legal education to improve access to under-represented groups like African Americans and Latinos.

Thus, to the extent that the race-ethnicity of Dallas County attorneys matters in the delivery of legal services, it seems clear that non-white residents of Dallas County are significantly under-served. But does the race-ethnicity of attorneys really matter? Yes it does. In one recent study of Latino legal needs in Dallas County, we learned that two-thirds of Latinos desired an attorney that spoke Spanish or had staff that communicated in Spanish. This finding is not particularly new as it is commonly known that trust, empathy and rapport are essential skills in medicine, psychology and other professions where communicative skills are important.

An additional reality is that the majority of attorneys in Dallas County that serve Latino legal needs have traditionally focused their practice on issues related to immigration, personal injury, DWI or criminal cases. Few attorneys target Latinos with legal services designed to protect their assets, such as wills and estate planning, bankruptcies or home foreclosures, intellectual property, and business contracts. In the long run, this imbalance in the availability of legal services and attorneys makes communities of color more vulnerable to the many adverse actions that impact their quality of life.

I genuinely believe that the UNT Dallas College of Law is an admirable and innovative concept with the potential to radically change the composition of the legal profession. The ABA committee should allow the school’s third-year students to take the bar exam as a final validation that they were able to master this important rite of passage into the legal profession – despite their academic and personal struggles. Anyone that has been through an advanced education knows that it is alwaysa struggle to balance your personal life with the academic challenges in pursuing a professional education

In addressing the issue of failure, Zig Zigler cautioned us to “remember that failure is an event, not a person.” Struggling, failing and perseverance have been the formula for success of many of today’s leaders. Ironically, the review by the ABA committee focused on the struggles that the UNT Dallas College of Law is experiencing in fulfilling its mission, and in the same action is eliminating the only potential evidence that the school’s model is working by not allowing the school’s first cohort of graduates to take the bar exam. Perhaps Michael Jordan best described the often forgotten link between failure and success:

“I’ve missed more than 9,000 shots in my career. I’ve lost almost 300 games. Twenty-six times I’ve been trusted to take the game winning shot and missed. I’ve failed over and over and over again in my life. And that is why I succeed.”

We should not fear the possibility that many of these students may actually pass the bar exam. In the movie Stand and Deliver, Jaime Escalante proved to the College Board and many other skeptics that low-income Latino high school students have the capacity to excel in calculus given the right teaching approach and motivation. Perhaps our nation’s law schools should take their cue from Mr. Escalante and Michael Jordan, and dare to innovate.

Latino Voter Turnout: Time to Re-fresh Our Thinking

National news headlines this past weekend announced Tim Kaine as Hillary Clinton’s choice for Vice President. Given the nation’s anticipation of this announcement, It was interesting to see that the major headline of news reports was focused on Tim Kaine’s fluency in Spanish, which he aptly demonstrated to Miami audiences.

This is not the first time that we have seen a political candidate speak Spanish to win the hearts of Latino voters. President George W. Bush, for example, used his limited Spanish-speaking skills to engage Latinos in his gubernatorial and presidential elections. When Spanish-speaking skills were lacking, some politicians have chosen to showcase their Latino family members in their campaigns — including wives, grandmothers and nephews. The assumption, of course, is that Latinos will somehow connect culturally with the political candidate, translating into more votes. Donald Trump, however, gets the top award for Most Disconnected Political Candidate for his recent tweet showing him eating a taco bowl and saying “I love Hispanics.”

Tim Kaine, however, is not the typical politician that is reaching out to Latino voters. Aside from his good Spanish-speaking skills, he seems to have more insight into the Latino culture — using humor, personal anecdotes, and underscoring values that are important to Latinos. In addition, Tim Kaine’s past career included litigating civil rights cases, missionary work in Honduras, and other social involvement in communities. His political career has been impressive with a track record for winning all of his past competitions for elective office. Indeed, Tim Kaine appears to be an excellent addition to the Clinton team with considerable potential for engaging Latino voters.

Given the lower voter turnout rates of Latinos in past presidential elections, however, Democrats risk the possibility of losing this election if they continue to rely on the same strategies of past elections to engage the Latino voter. The selection of Tim Kaine is just one element of Clinton’s Latino strategy, and not necessarily the most important one. Hillary Clinton currently has an impressive advantage over Donald Trump as shown by recent polls of Latino registered voters at the national, statewide, and metro levels (see Table 1 below). Indeed, Hillary Clinton’s advantage over Donald Trump ranges from 39 to 58 points.

Table 1

Candidate Margins in Recent Latino Voter Polls

Poll	Hillary Clinton	Donald Trump	Margin
Fox News May 2016 U.S.	62%	23%	39%
Pew Research June 2016 U.S.	66%	24%	42%
Rincon & Associates June 2016 Dallas/Ft. Worth Metro	50%	11%	39%
Univision Poll July 2016 U.S.	67%	19%	48%
Latino Decisions July 2016 Texas	74%	16%	58%

But some of these polls also show that about one-quarter of Latino registered voters remain undecided about the candidates, may vote for another candidate, or just stay home on election day. Coupled with the daily changes in the political campaigns – convention activities, disclosure of DNC emails, endorsements – Democrats cannot afford to get too complacent.

Interestingly, as national polls of the general electorate show Hillary Clinton’s edge over Donald Trump diminishing, the role of the Latino vote will take center stage, especially in the battleground states. There is certainly no shortage of eligible Latino voters as current Census Bureau reports tell us that at least 26 million Latinos will be eligible to vote in the November 2016 election. Table 2 below shows that 80 percent of these eligible voters were located in just 10 states. The problem, however, is that only 48 percent of eligible Latino voters actually cast a vote in the 2012 presidential election. Which begs the question: What magic wand is going to move the Latino voter turnout rate beyond 48 percent? Surely, it would be risky to simply rely on the same campaign strategies of the past.

Table 2

Estimate of U.S. Latinos Eligible to Vote

in November 2016 Election

State	Latinos Eligible to Vote
California	6,907,428
Texas	4,820,430
Florida	2,566,940
New York	1,870,750
Arizona	985,387
Illinois	931,744
New Jersey	824,210
New Mexico	596,169
Colorado	550,775
Pennsylvania	430,592
Total Eligible	20,484,425

Source: American Community Survey One-Year Estimates, 2014

The Message to Latinos

The challenge of engaging the millions of eligible Latinos to become registered voters has already received a jump-start from Donald Trump. Judging by reports from California and Georgia, registration of Latino voters is surging as a direct result of the negative campaigning that Donald Trump has directed in past months towards Latinos, immigrants, women, war heroes and the disabled. But more effort will be needed to move the needle beyond the 48 percent turnout rate. This hardcore segment of Latino non-voters will need a strong message that will remind them about the consequences to families if they decide to sit out the November election. This message or messages will need to be educational and persuasive since non-voters are less likely to know or understand the policies that differentiate the presidential candidates and the consequences to their quality of life.

Past political campaigns have used several slogans to engage Latinos, such as “Si se puede,” “Su voz es su voto,” and “Juntos se puede.” Perhaps it is time to go beyond these traditional slogans and engage the talents of advertising agencies to create new slogans that excite Latinos about the importance of participating in the upcoming presidential election. The new strategy, however, will need to incorporate both an educational component and a persuasive call-to-action component.

Following are some ideas for the educational component of a new non-voter campaign:

· Support for a Path to Citizenship: The lives of 12 million undocumented immigrants remain on hold due to the lack of progress on immigration reform. The Clinton-Kaine team supports a path to citizenship for these immigrants, many of whom include women and children that escaped persecution in their countries of origin.

· Minimum Wage of $15 per hour: Many workers on minimum wage will benefit by this increase in the minimum wage, especially Latinos who often work for low wages in restaurants, hotels, and construction. The Clinton/Kaine team supports a $15 per hour minimum wage.

· Voter ID Laws: Republicans have tried their best to limit the voting power of Latinos and other groups by pushing voter ID laws with little evidence of voter fraud. Democrats, on the other hand, have been fighting successfully in the courts to eliminate such laws.

· Supreme Court Appointments: The next president will have the opportunity to appoint one or two Supreme Court justices, which could radically change the laws that influence the quality of life of many Americans. Latinos cannot afford to allow Donald Trump to take this opportunity to appoint justices that will eliminate programs or policies that benefit Latino families.

· Support for Women’s Rights: A woman’s right to choose her options for family planning continues to be threatened by Republicans, especially in states like Texas. Such efforts especially impact lower-income Latinas who often require support and guidance in choosing the right family planning options, and obtain needed exams for breast cancer screening.

· Support for Free Tuition at Public Colleges: More Latinos are graduating from public colleges but start their careers with large student debt. The Clinton/Kaine team is making free tuition at public colleges a top priority of their campaign, but no support by the Trump campaign has been offered in this area.

· Support for Gun Control: The absence of tougher background checks has made it too easy for people with bad intentions to purchase weapons that can kill large numbers of people in a few minutes. These weapons threaten the lives of all Americans, especially groups who are often the target of hate crimes such as Latinos, immigrants, African Americans, gay/lesbians, and police officers. Despite the many deaths in the U.S. that have resulted from the use of these weapons, Donald Trump has no plans to change gun control laws. The Clinton/Kaine team will support tougher background checks and limit the sale and distribution of these military-style weapons.

· Expanding Healthcare for the Uninsured: Historically, the uninsured rate for Latinos has been among the highest in the U.S. The Affordable Care Act, known also as Obamacare, has greatly improved access to health insurance for Latinos and other groups who have had difficulty in obtaining affordable healthcare coverage. The Clinton/Kaine team plans to keep and improve The Affordable Care Act, while the Trump candidate promises to eliminate it.

Creative ideas regarding the persuasive call-to-action component are best handled by talented advertising agencies that develop multiple ideas for slogans that are tested with the target audiences. “Feel the Bern” is an excellent example of a slogan that resonated well throughout this presidential campaign with many audiences, and there is no reason why similar slogans cannot be created for Hillary Clinton that resonate well with English and Spanish-speaking audiences.

Delivery of the Message

Past efforts to engage and educate Latinos about the importance of their civic participation have included voter registration drives, use of traditional media (i.e., television, radio, newspapers), appearances at community events, endorsements by key Latino leaders or personalities, and sending relevant information to parents by coordinating with schools. However, a digital revolution is taking place among U.S. Latinos that dramatically expands the ability of political campaigns to engage Latinos. As reported recently by the Pew Research Center, U.S. Latinos now have nearly comparable access to the Internet compared to whites, and rely greatly on mobile devices to engage with the news, shopping, and communicating with family members. Following are some suggested steps for enhancing the delivery of these messages to the un-engaged Latino electorate:

· Focus on the geographic areas where Latino eligible voters are highly concentrated. The American Community Survey provides detailed information regarding the geographic areas that include sizable numbers of Latino eligible voters – at the state, metro, county and city levels.

· Tim Kaine should continue to communicate in Spanish throughout the campaign since it is useful as one way to establish rapport among Latinos. Not all political candidates, however, have the cultural experience that Kaine has to make the Spanish pitch sound credible. But remember that the majority of Latino voters are native-born and communicate primarily in English. Both English and Spanish-language messages and media vehicles should be utilized to ensure a balanced delivery of the campaign messages.

· Maximize the use of social media, a popular form of communication for Latinos. Latinos are more likely than non-Latinos to access the Internet, use apps, and Facebook through their mobile devices, and often share their information will their networks of friends and family members. Apps are low in cost compared to traditional media, and have the potential to reach all segments of Latinos through a mix of attention-grabbing technology.

· Engage the support of the many businesses and organizations that employ significant numbers of Latinos to provide their employees time off on election day to cast their vote, encourage early voting to avoid long lines on election day, and sponsor transportation to facilitate travel to voting precincts when needed. Too many blue collar or low-wage workers have restricted work schedules that have contributed to a lower voter turnout.

· Latino bloggers, radio and television personalities should be more aggressively engaged to discuss the myths and hysteria that the Trump campaign has been promoting. The Clinton campaign, for example, has sponsored some relevant television commercials that focus on the impact that Trump’s insulting statements are likely to have on the nation’s children. Similar tactics should incorporate Latino adult audiences and the potential impact on their quality of life.

It would be premature to think that these thoughts provide the silver bullet that is needed to ensure that the Latino voter turnout rate surpasses 48 percent in the November presidential election. However, it is perhaps time to expand our collective thinking about innovative strategies to engage Latinos in the November election this year.